2018 has been a really hard year for crypto money investors, and finally 2019 has come! So, are we going to enter 2019 without taking lessons from 2018? Of course no. We need to evaluate 2018 and envision our experience memory so that we can see our mistakes and minimize the possibility of mistakes. First, let’s see what happened in 2018.
In 2018, it is enough to look at the above table to understand what is happening. However, to summarize briefly; over the course of a year, Bitcoin and most of its sub-market rankings dropped 81% to 96.5% from their historic peaks (ATH). Considering the bottom level in 2018, the value loss is changing between 84% and 98%. These percentages are clearly expressing the risk environment of the crypto money market. Think about the 9-year-old bitcoin, which is the leader of the market, is losing 84% and if you bought Bitcoin from the historic summit, you will only be able to earn 625% profit. While you are trying to reach your cost, some other investors in the market, I’m sure you think it’s ruining your capital. So, is it possible to compensate for such losses in the crypto money market? Of course its possible. But in order to achieve this, I think we should increase our level of knowledge and invest in the right strategy. For this purpose, I wanted to pass on some important lessons from 2018:
The direction of the trend in the long term;
We spent the whole year of 2018 with a decline. I mean, the bear market was dominant for a whole year. You see this falling trend with the trend line that I indicated by the number 2 in the up chart (Weekly / Logarithmic). Similarly, in the period between 2014-2015 (July), bearish market has been followed by falling trend 1 and Bitcoin has lost 86%. As for the current situation, we can say that the bear market will continue in the long term, as long as the price remains below the 2 numbered trend. But if the falling trend breaks in 2019, does it mean that the bull market has begun? It’s hard to give an answer in advance. However, the downtrend in the falling trend will show that the bear market has been reduced.
In which term should we invest? Does HODL make sense?
Maturity selection is an issue specific to the investor. It is directly linked to the investor’s portfolio power, risk appetite and patience. However, no matter what maturity is chosen, I think it is a common point to be aware of: To determine the purchase area, the sales area and the stop loss level. To be able to implement and implement our related strategies. Actually, this is a very difficult thing I’m talking about. If anyone could accomplish this already, everyone in the market would always add their portfolio, right? But as investors, we must develop ourselves in this direction in order to preserve the value of our portfolio and then increase it.
We need to analyze the long-term periods of the instrument we are going to invest to short-term periods and determine the period in which we will invest. For example; Bitcoin, which is dominated by the falling trend in the long term (weekly) chart, can offer the opportunities that will leave a good margin on daily or 4 hour charts in the short term. In this context, the question of whether HODL is logical or not, in the long term trend, of course it will not be logical. However, when the signals related to the bull market are started to be received (such as bottom formation, upward trend of the trend or moving averages), it is possible to make purchases from the support regions and generate a significant cost in a possible bullish market. Nevertheless, I think we should set stoploss and resale goals while generating average cost.
Which pair of pairs do we trade?
Most crypto money exchanges allow trading on many pair of pair. The investor is also confused in the choice of parity. In order to clarify the subject, it is necessary to reveal the following data:
- There is an economy dominated by dollars in the world.
- Bitcoin, leader of the crypto money market.
Considering that Bitcoin is priced in dollars in the light of these data, the number of Bitcoins we have will reflect the strength of our portfolio. When we come to the Altcoin side, though, all the altcoins are priced with BTC, even though they are priced with dollars. Therefore, we can say that the value of a subcoin against the dollar is dependent on Bitcoin. As an example, including Turkish Lira: XRP / TRY pricing has a direct effect on XRP / BTC, BTC / USD and USD / TRY pricing. Therefore, according to which instrument we want to shape your portfolio according to which we should make the parity selection. However, our BTC / USD chart should always be in front of us.
Short position and leveraged operations
Some crypto money exchanges offer short position (short selling) and leveraged trading. In fact, short selling is no different from the long position. Therefore, after determining the place of purchase, place of sale and stoploss, it can be moved as in the same long position. When we come to leveraged transactions, the situation changes a little more. It is necessary to act with the knowledge that more attention should be paid to the transactions in the leveraged market, otherwise the portfolio may be seriously damaged.
PUMP & DUMP issue
There’s not much to say about it. You are very likely to be from your capital by entering such groups. Therefore, it is absolutely not necessary to take such subcoins not to enter such groups.
Monitoring the news about the market
The year 2018 may have been very bad. However, very serious developments concerning the crypto money market continue to mature rapidly. The head of these developments are the efforts of the corporate firms to enter the market, the expectation of the ongoing ETF in Bitcoin and some regulations. These developments point out that the popularity of the crypto money market for 2019 and later will increase further. Therefore, to follow these developments carefully will provide us with serious data when investing.
In 2019 we hope you will get plenty of profits.
The information, comments and evaluations contained herein are NOT within the scope of Investment Consultancy .